{"id":"el1-encuestas","lens":"tiempo","theme":"elecciones","title":{"es":"El PP lidera la media de encuestas con un 32,6 %, 6,4 puntos por delante del PSOE"},"subtitle":{"es":"Intención de voto al Congreso, en % sobre voto válido. Cada punto es una encuesta; la línea, la media."},"unit":{"es":"% del voto válido"},"source":{"name":"Wikipedia, Opinion polling for the 2026 Spanish general election","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Spanish_general_election","license":"CC BY-SA 4.0","dataset":"Encuestas recopiladas con su enlace original","also":[{"name":"Resultados de 2023: Ministerio del Interior","url":"https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/opencms/es/elecciones-celebradas/area-de-descargas/"}]},"notes":{"es":["Media semanal suavizada: para cada fecha, las encuestas de 45 días antes y después, ponderadas por distancia (núcleo gaussiano de 18 días) y por la raíz del tamaño muestral (tope de 3.000 entrevistas). En el último tramo solo hay encuestas anteriores, así que la media puede moverse cuando lleguen las siguientes. Cada empresa reparte su peso entre sus encuestas de la ventana, para que las que publican más a menudo no dominen.","Antes de promediar se corrige el efecto casa: la desviación media de cada empresa respecto a la media (con al menos 5 encuestas), encogida hacia cero y centrada para que el conjunto de empresas no se desplace. Los puntos muestran siempre el dato publicado, sin corregir.","No entran en la media los paneles online sin muestreo probabilístico (ElectoPanel), las encuestas de partidos ni las reestimaciones del CIS hechas por otras empresas. Sí aparecen como puntos.","Resultados de 2023: % sobre voto válido (candidaturas + blanco), con voto exterior.","Por ley (LOREG, art. 69.7), las encuestas no se pueden publicar del 24 al 28 de noviembre. Esos días este gráfico se oculta."]},"retrieved":"2026-10-05","geos":{},"parties":["PP","PSOE","Vox","Sumar","Podemos","SALF"],"election_2023":"2023-07-23","results_2023":[{"party":"PP","value":33.1},{"party":"PSOE","value":31.7},{"party":"Vox","value":12.4},{"party":"Sumar","value":12.3}],"last_poll":"2026-10-03","veda":{"from":"2026-11-24","to":"2026-11-29T21:00:00+01:00"},"house_effects":[{"pollster":"40dB","party":"PP","value":-0.9},{"pollster":"40dB","party":"PSOE","value":0.7},{"pollster":"40dB","party":"Podemos","value":-0.5},{"pollster":"40dB","party":"SALF","value":0.3},{"pollster":"40dB","party":"Sumar","value":-0.4},{"pollster":"40dB","party":"Vox","value":0.2},{"pollster":"CIS","party":"PP","value":-1.9},{"pollster":"CIS","party":"PSOE","value":1.5},{"pollster":"CIS","party":"Sumar","value":0.1},{"pollster":"CIS","party":"Vox","value":-0.6},{"pollster":"Celeste-Tel","party":"PP","value":0.4},{"pollster":"Celeste-Tel","party":"PSOE","value":-0.2},{"pollster":"Celeste-Tel","party":"Podemos","value":0.3},{"pollster":"Celeste-Tel","party":"SALF","value":-0.1},{"pollster":"Celeste-Tel","party":"Sumar","value":0.0},{"pollster":"Celeste-Tel","party":"Vox","value":-0.2},{"pollster":"DYM","party":"PP","value":1.0},{"pollster":"DYM","party":"PSOE","value":0.1},{"pollster":"DYM","party":"Podemos","value":0.2},{"pollster":"DYM","party":"SALF","value":-0.6},{"pollster":"DYM","party":"Sumar","value":-0.5},{"pollster":"DYM","party":"Vox","value":-0.6},{"pollster":"GAD3","party":"PP","value":-0.3},{"pollster":"GAD3","party":"PSOE","value":-0.5},{"pollster":"GAD3","party":"Podemos","value":-0.0},{"pollster":"GAD3","party":"SALF","value":-0.1},{"pollster":"GAD3","party":"Sumar","value":0.2},{"pollster":"GAD3","party":"Vox","value":0.6},{"pollster":"GESOP","party":"PP","value":-1.2},{"pollster":"GESOP","party":"PSOE","value":-0.6},{"pollster":"GESOP","party":"Podemos","value":-0.2},{"pollster":"GESOP","party":"SALF","value":0.0},{"pollster":"GESOP","party":"Sumar","value":1.0},{"pollster":"GESOP","party":"Vox","value":0.5},{"pollster":"Hamalgama 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