Housing: why it is the issue of this election
The 29 November election was called after Congress rejected two rental decrees. The data explains why housing is at the centre: since 2015 house prices have risen 80%, and wages 25%.
Spain and Europe
Spain is not where house prices have risen most, but it is one of the countries where rent weighs most.
Since 2015, house prices have risen 81% in Spain, above the EU average (62%), Germany (53%), France (27%) and Italy (16%). Other countries have gone much further: in Portugal prices have risen 164% and in Hungary they have multiplied by more than three and a half.
House prices have risen 81% in Spain since 2015, against 62% in the EU
Rise in house prices between 2015 and 2025, in %. Spain ranks 14th of 26 countries
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Where Spain stands out is in what it costs to rent. 27% of tenants paying market rent spend more than 40% of their income on housing, against 19% on average in Europe. It is the eighth highest share in the EU.
27% of tenants paying market rent in Spain spend more than 40% of their income on housing; in the EU, 19%
Market-rent tenants overburdened by housing costs, 2025, in %. Spain ranks 8th of 27
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Spain from within
In Madrid house prices have doubled since 2015; in Extremadura they have risen 40%. And Catalonia has spent two years trying out rent caps.
The rise has not been the same everywhere. In Madrid prices have practically doubled since 2015 and in the Balearic Islands they have risen 95%. At the other end are Castile-La Mancha (43%) and Extremadura (40%).
Since 2015, house prices have risen 100% in Madrid and 40% in Extremadura
Rise in house prices between 2015 and 2025, in %. Spain: 80%
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Policy file: rent caps in Catalonia
- What it is. A cap on the rent of new long-term residential leases in areas declared «stressed residential markets», based on the Housing Ministry's reference index. It is allowed by Law 12/2023 on the right to housing.
- Who and when. Each region applies for the declaration. Catalonia has been applying it the longest and covers the most municipalities: 140 since 16 March 2024 and 131 more since 10 October 2024. The Basque Country, Navarre, Galicia and Asturias have since started applying it in some municipalities. Before that, a 2020 Catalan law capped rents until the Constitutional Court struck it down in March 2022.
- What should happen. Rents on new leases should rise less. The risk its critics point to is that fewer homes are offered for long-term rent.
- What we compare it with. With Catalan municipalities without a cap, using the same source: the rental deposits lodged with the Catalan government.
Before 2024, rents on new leases rose at the same pace in the municipalities that would later have a cap and in the rest. Since it has applied, they have diverged: in the last year, the average rent in municipalities capped since March 2024 was 4% above 2023, and in municipalities without a cap, 12%.
With a cap, rents on new leases are 4% above 2023; without one, 12%
Average rent of contracts signed each quarter, index 2023 = 100, up to Q1 2026
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At the same time, fewer contracts are being signed: 20% fewer than in 2023 in capped municipalities, against 2% fewer in those without a cap. It may mean there are fewer homes for long-term rent (because they move to seasonal lets or are sold), but also that tenants move less so as not to lose their rent. This data cannot tell the two apart.
With a cap, 20% fewer rental contracts are signed than in 2023; without one, 2% fewer
Rental contracts registered each quarter, index 2023 = 100 (quarterly average), up to Q1 2026
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What research says about the 2020 Catalan law, which worked in a similar way: two studies using deposit data agree that it lowered rents, by between 5% and 6%. They disagree on supply. Monràs and García-Montalvo (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) find fewer homes for rent and attribute half of the price fall to a change in the type of flat being rented. Jofre-Monseny, Martínez-Mazza and Segú (Universitat de Barcelona) find no fall in contracts. There are still few independent evaluations of the 2024 caps.
In short: the data for these two years is consistent with what the studies of the 2020 law found. The caps hold down rents on new leases, and at the same time there are fewer new leases. Why there are fewer, and whether it is worth it, is the question that will divide the campaign debate, and public data does not yet fully answer it.
Spain over time
Housing has become far more expensive than wages have risen.
Between 2015 and 2025, house prices rose 80%, the average wage per worker 25% and consumer prices 27%. Adjusted for inflation, buying a home costs 42% more than ten years ago, while the average wage buys 1.5% less than it did then.
Adjusted for inflation, housing costs 42% more than in 2015; the average wage buys 1.5% less
Indices, 2015 = 100. House prices, average wage per worker and consumer prices
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See also: Note: real wages and the minimum wage since 2008
Seen from 2008, the cycle is complete: after the bubble, house prices fell 35% until 2013 and have almost doubled since. In 2025 they were 22% above their previous peak, in current euros.
At the end of September the government approved two rental decrees: they capped the annual rent update at 2%, allowed leases to be extended and set compensation if the landlord did not renew them. On 2 October Congress did not validate them and they were struck down. Three days later the election was called.
What this data does not say. The prices in the charts for Spain and the regions are sale prices. For rents we only use the deposits lodged with the Catalan government, so rents in Catalonia cannot be compared with other regions using the same source. The deposits cover long-term residential leases with a lodged deposit: they do not include seasonal lets or contracts without a deposit. The comparison between Catalan municipalities with and without a cap is not an experiment: capped municipalities are more urban and more expensive, so the difference cannot be attributed to the rule alone. And the tenants' cost overburden comes from a European survey, with its margin of error.
See also: The parliament in data: wages, jobs and public finances since 2023
Sources for the text
- BOE (official gazette): repeal of Royal Decree-law 26/2026 (2 October 2026)
- OCU (consumer association): what decrees 26 and 27/2026 contained
- Law 12/2023 on the right to housing
- La Moncloa: stressed areas in 140 Catalan municipalities (March 2024)
- BOE: 131 new stressed municipalities in Catalonia (October 2024)
- Civio: new stressed areas in Galicia, the Basque Country and Asturias (July 2026)
- Monràs y García-Montalvo, The effect of second generation rent controls: New evidence from Catalonia (UPF)
- Jofre-Monseny, Martínez-Mazza y Segú, Effectiveness and supply effects of high-coverage rent control policies (UB)
Other themes
- Congress in dataHow the parties have voted in the 2,173 roll-call votes of this parliament: who votes with whom, who wins the votes and which government decrees fell.
- The parliament in data: how Spain has changed since July 2023The 29 November election closes the parliament that began with the July 2023 general election. Since then unemployment has fallen from 12.2% to 10.5%, although it is still the highest in the EU; GDP has grown 6.4%, a third of it from population growth; and the deficit has fallen to 2.4% of GDP, mostly in 2025 thanks to the lower cost of the measures for the energy crisis and the DANA floods, according to AIReF.
- Jobs: the labour reform, three years onThe labour reform of December 2021 changed employment contracts. Since then, temporary employees in the private sector have gone from 23.7% to 12.4%. Part of that change has gone into permanent seasonal contracts, and youth unemployment is still among the highest in the EU.
- 29 November general electionPolls, the 2023 results and who governs each region, updated until election day. With the methodology in plain sight.
- Demographics and pensions: an ageing countrySpain spends 13.2% of GDP on pensions and its median pension equals 81% of the median earnings of those about to retire, the second highest ratio in the EU. Real spending has risen 53.5% since 2008, and for every person over 64 there are fewer people in work than then. How to pay for pensions is one of the questions of the 29 November election.
- Immigration in dataOne in five residents of Spain was born in another country, and one in four among those of working age. They are younger than the population born here, work in almost the same proportion and more often below their qualifications. Ahead of the 29 November election we look at where they come from, where they live, how they fare at work, what the evidence says about their effect on the economy and what the 2026 extraordinary regularisation involves.
- Regional finance: who raises the money, who receives it and whom the regions oweThe regions run health and education, and together with municipalities they spend half of all public money. They are funded by a 2009 system that shares money out unevenly, and they owe more than half of their debt to central government. Both questions are open on 29 November: the bill to write off part of that debt lapsed when parliament was dissolved.
- Health: waiting lists and spending by regionMore than 850,000 people are waiting for surgery in the public health system, and how long they wait depends heavily on where they live. Spain spends less on public health care than the EU average, and households pay a larger share out of their own pockets. Spending more per inhabitant does not guarantee shorter waits either: across regions, the two are barely related.