Spain's general election on 29 November

Polls

How voting intention has changed since the July 2023 election.

Each dot is a published poll; the line is our average. The average gives more weight to recent polls and to those with large samples, and counts each pollster only once a week so that those that publish more often do not dominate. Online panels without probability sampling and polls commissioned by parties are shown, but they do not enter the average.

A poll is not a forecast. It measures stated intention over a few specific days, with a margin of error of two to three points for a sample of a thousand interviews, and each pollster adjusts its data with its own method. That is why polls differ from one another and why it is better to look at the average than at a single figure.

The starting point

Where each party starts from and which territory it governs.

In 2023 the PP won the most votes in 40 of the 52 provinces. The PSOE won in 10: the four Catalan provinces, Badajoz, Cáceres, Seville, Las Palmas, Navarre and Álava. The PNV won in Bizkaia and EH Bildu in Gipuzkoa.

By municipality the map changes: the PSOE won in more municipalities than the PP in Andalusia, Extremadura, Catalonia and Asturias, and EH Bildu came first in more municipalities than anyone else in the Basque Country and Navarre. Switch to the municipality view to see the detail.

A general election does not choose regional governments, but how power is spread across the regions shapes the campaign: whoever governs each region decides much of the healthcare, education and housing that voters have in mind.

The parliament in Congress

How the parties have voted since 2023: who votes with whom and which decrees fell.

• Congress in dataHow the parties have voted in the 2,173 roll-call votes of this parliament: who votes with whom, who wins the votes and which government decrees fell.

Campaign analysis

• Turnout in 2023, at 66.6%, is the third lowest in a general election since 1977In the 16 general elections since 1977, turnout has ranged from 80.0% in 1982 to 66.2% in November 2019. By region, in 2023 there were 14.8 points between Castile-La Mancha and the Canary Islands, and part of the gap comes from voters who live abroad.26 October 2026
• Health: waiting lists and spending by regionMore than 850,000 people are waiting for surgery in the public health system, and how long they wait depends heavily on where they live. Spain spends less on public health care than the EU average, and households pay a larger share out of their own pockets. Spending more per inhabitant does not guarantee shorter waits either: across regions, the two are barely related.24 October 2026
• Regional finance: who raises the money, who receives it and whom the regions oweThe regions run health and education, and together with municipalities they spend half of all public money. They are funded by a 2009 system that shares money out unevenly, and they owe more than half of their debt to central government. Both questions are open on 29 November: the bill to write off part of that debt lapsed when parliament was dissolved.21 October 2026
• Immigration in dataOne in five residents of Spain was born in another country, and one in four among those of working age. They are younger than the population born here, work in almost the same proportion and more often below their qualifications. Ahead of the 29 November election we look at where they come from, where they live, how they fare at work, what the evidence says about their effect on the economy and what the 2026 extraordinary regularisation involves.16 October 2026
• Demographics and pensions: an ageing countrySpain spends 13.2% of GDP on pensions and its median pension equals 81% of the median earnings of those about to retire, the second highest ratio in the EU. Real spending has risen 53.5% since 2008, and for every person over 64 there are fewer people in work than then. How to pay for pensions is one of the questions of the 29 November election.14 October 2026
• Andalusia, Catalonia and Madrid elect 146 of the 350 deputies: who governs where and how much each region weighsOn 29 November, 350 seats are allocated by province. Three regions elect 41.7% of Congress, the PP holds the presidency of 11 of the 17, and a deputy from Castile and León represents fewer than half as many people as one from Madrid.12 October 2026
• Jobs: the labour reform, three years onThe labour reform of December 2021 changed employment contracts. Since then, temporary employees in the private sector have gone from 23.7% to 12.4%. Part of that change has gone into permanent seasonal contracts, and youth unemployment is still among the highest in the EU.9 October 2026
• The parliament in data: how Spain has changed since July 2023The 29 November election closes the parliament that began with the July 2023 general election. Since then unemployment has fallen from 12.2% to 10.5%, although it is still the highest in the EU; GDP has grown 6.4%, a third of it from population growth; and the deficit has fallen to 2.4% of GDP, mostly in 2025 thanks to the lower cost of the measures for the energy crisis and the DANA floods, according to AIReF.7 October 2026
• Fifteen years in Congress: from an absolute majority to decrees that fallWe have analysed every roll-call vote in the plenary since 2012. With an absolute majority, the PP won them all; the PSOE has gone from winning 99% in 2021 to 76% in 2026, and this parliament accounts for 13 of the 16 decree-laws struck down since 2011.7 October 2026
• Housing: why it is the issue of this electionThe 29 November election was called after Congress rejected two rental decrees. The data explains why housing is at the centre: since 2015 house prices have risen 80%, and wages 25%.6 October 2026